It's not just the Economy, it's also the Region

Bad economic news is something none of us seem to be able to escape from lately, and the sad part is the media constantly buries good economic news. Therefore, with one exception, I was encouraged to read the article, "In the end, the ski season was a 'pleasant surprise'" on page seven of the 4/2/2009 issue of the Sangre de Cristo Chronicle. Once again, with one exception, all the businesses interviewed had encouraging news to report; sure most said business was down a bit, but all agreed it was better than had been expected.

Everyone I have talked to is in complete agreement that the economic downturn is mostly regional. Sure there are parts of the country that are suffering terribly, but the reality is that our region, New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma, etc, have proven to be remarkably resilient. Boy, I remember 1984 to about 1987 when I first started selling real estate here in Angel Fire the exact oppisite was true, we were the region that was suffering terribly.

This brings me to the one exception I had with the artice, that being the interview with Don Borgeson of Angel Fire Real Estate Research. Before I continue, I want to cite as my data source the Realtors Multiple Listing Service (Paragon), of which Mr. Borgeson is not a member, while the vast majority of Agents in the area are members. I also am not going to claim the MLS is totally reliable, but it is in my opionion the most reliable source available.

My first point of contention is the article states 'Unfortuantely nobody is buying.' This statement is not in quotations in the article, so I can't say for sure that Mr. Borgeson actually made this statement, but regardless it is not accurate. For the period January 1, 2009 thru March 31, 2009, (traditionally one of our slowest sales periods), 4 condos, 2 townhomes, and 4 single family homes sold. The total for all 10 was $1,929,500 for an average price of $192,950. There are also currently three more under contract, and I have personal knowledge of two others that have closed but not yet been entered as closed into the MLS. That would put the total number of closed residential properties at 12.

By comparison for the same three month period in 2008, 5 condos 11 homes and 1 townhouse had sold by March 31 for a total of 17. This reflected a total gross of $4,899,400 for an average price of $288,200. I agree that these numbers reflect a substatial retraction, but the numbers also show that there are indeed buyers out there right now who recognize what a great investment Angel Fire is. I personally have dealt with clients that view Angel Fire as a safe harbor for their money.

Mr. Borgeson also states that there are 350 to 450 homes on the market right now. Actually the MLS system shows there are currently 268 homes on the market covering the area from Eagle Nest to Black Lake. It is true that there is a very small minority of offices not on the MLS, and a handfulf of FSBO homes but I seriously doubt there are anywhere near enough non-MLS listings to explain the difference between 268 listings and 350 to 450 listings. Additionally, Mr. Borgeson states "the already bulging inventory of area homes for sale continued to grow at a rapid pace through the winter. Thats unusual, Borgeson says." Actually the MLS data show the pace of new listings slowed down a bit for the first quarter of 2009 (55 new listings) versus first quarter of 2008 (62 new lsitings).

Mr Borgeon also states "a whopping 105 of these (homes) are listed for $500,000 or more." The MLS data actually shows 76 homes for $500k or more, but the data also shows that there is a truly whopping 104 homes listed for $250,000 or less. I guess this is why the New York Times, in a March 12, 2009 article, cited Angel Fire one of the last affordable ski towns in America. In fairness to Mr. Borgeson he did state prices are falling and there are some great bargains, which is quite true. This bodes well for our busiest part of the sales season which is getting ready to start.

I could keep citing data and numbers all day long, but my point is the market here, while not fantastic, is not near as bad as Mr. Borgeson has described it in the last two articles the Sangre de Cristo Chronicle has interviewed him for. In closing I would like to kindly suggest that the Chronicle and Mr. Borgeson call local offices for their feedback, I did just that yesterday before writing this and everyone I talked to said that the market is down, but there are still active buyers and Agents are making sales. Everyone I talked to also said that I could quote them. I would also suggest that Mr. Borgeson might expand his data sources by joining the Board of Realtors and the MLS Paragon System.

Sincerely,

Kyle Eby
Associate Broker
Resort Properties of Angel Fire